Expect Unrest

How crazy things can get when credit bubbles pop?

The answer is "very" … And billioniare investor Ray Dalio has tried to measure it.

Ray Dalio's populism index measures the share of votes won by populists in national elections across the developed world.

Dalio created the index in 2017, but it's still relevant, as shown in the EU elections this week.

European voters are not satisfied with their elites, and brought a surge in right-wing populism across the continent.

🇫🇷 Marine Le Pen's National Rally won more than 15% of the votes, prompting President Macron to call for snap elections.
🇩🇪 Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the second highest amount of votes of any particular party.

These results reflect a growing unrest among Europeans around issues such as immigration, security, and economic inequality.

This is a also recurring pattern throughout economic history:

When standards-of-living fall — and inequality rises — people seek to replace stale elites with something more fiery.

As the global economic system starts to buckle, expect populist movements to rise through 2024 and beyond.